Soybeans - Just My Opinion

Liquidation/correction enters its third day. The complex got beat up in the Tuesday night session and spent the day session trying to recoup some of those losses. At point during the night trade soybean losses neared 34 cents losses in March soybeans. The best recovery we saw in the day session was down 4 ¾ cents. The last hour or so was spent easing off from those intra-day highs. The meal market saw a similar trade. Soybean oil was the bright star of the day as inter-market spreading against soybean meal and palm oil gave that market a stout rally for the day (bull spreads in soybean oil were working noticeably). So what prompted the run of liquidation? Reports are coming in from Brazil that early harvest may not be as bad as some were thinking just 2-3 weeks ago. Weather forecasts and private estimates appear to be good enough to continue to stem the idea the Brazilian crop is a not failure. As of this writing it appears they will have a good crop of soybeans maybe not a stellar one. Argentine weather continues to be iffy looking (hit or miss rains in the forecast).

The interior Midwestern cash soybean market continues with its recent defensive look. The Gulf market soybeans is easing as well. Despite the flat price selling bull spreads within the current crop year showed a bullish bias while the old crop/new crop soybeans spreads ran mixed for the day. Soybean meal spreads saw similar action while soybean oil spreads were bullish looking all the way out to 2022.

Watch the $13.45 - $13.45 level for support (March soybeans). If we do have a top in the making a test of the $14.00 - $14.05 level followed failure will confirm. A similar scenario for March meal shows support from $435.0 to $430.0 with resistance up towards the $460.0-$465.0 level. The more I look at the March soybean oil chart the more it resembles a downflag. For now $41.00 is support and resistance at $44.00.

Daily & Resistance – 01/21

March Beans : $13.55 – $13.90

March Meal: $435.0 - $455.0

March Bean Oil: $41.50 - $43.50

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